By: Sunil Agrawal and Chitrang Negi

Accelerating Quantum Computing breakthroughs serve as stark reminders that this technology is soon approaching commercial viability. In recent months, we  have heard of research centers announcing breakthroughs in quantum that might improve error correction in quantum systems and potentially enable large-scale quantum computers or businesses that create software that can boost the performance of any quantum-computing hardware.

With each technological breakthrough, more investment money is flooding the market, creating an ideal environment for start-ups to flourish.

Major corporations are heavily investing in quantum computing services, with tech giants like Alibaba, Amazon, IBM, Google, and Microsoft already getting ready with commercial quantum-computing cloud services.

Despite the growth trajectory, the level of commercial success of quantum computing is yet to be known. While quantum computing promises to help organizations address challenges beyond traditional high-performance computers’ reach and speed, application cases are still in the experimental and conceptual phase.

This blog discusses why leaders should begin developing their quantum-computing plans and initially focus on sectors where the technology may quickly pay off. The blog also sheds some light on how quantum computing will cause a  paradigm shift for businesses and explains why your company may need to act immediately.

What is Quantum Computing

Quantum computers are fundamentally different from classical computers. Although both try to solve problems, they manipulate data differently. In classical computing, operations are performed using binary bits. This means the bits are either 0 or 1, true or false, positive or negative. However, in Quantum Computing, the bit is referred to as a quantum bit or qubit, which can exhibit multiple states simultaneously.

The quantum features of superposition and entanglement enable quantum computers to swiftly explore various options to find an optimal solution that can create commercial value. Future quantum computers will be able to solve exponentially more complicated business issues since they can calculate specific solutions tenfold quicker than today’s conventional machines. Despite the limitations of conventional computers, quantum computers are not likely to replace them soon. Instead, hybrid quantum-classical systems that “outsource” sections of challenging problems to a quantum computer are predicted to arise.

Many industrial analysts call the current decade the Quantum decade, where  enterprises will start seeing business value from Quantum Computing. The hardware and software are currently available only from select vendors. However, with advances, these services will soon be cheaper, and bring revolutionary opportunities for businesses.

Quantum Computing and the solutions it will bring are poised to bring a revolution in the IT industry with critical breakthroughs in AI, Machine Learning, Cryptography, Optimization, etc. Gartner rates Quantum Computing as the decade’s most disruptive technology and believes that 40percent  of large companies are planning to create initiatives around quantum computing by 2025.

Growing Market Potential of Quantum Computing

Quantum computing  may still be a nascent technology, but by gaining a perspective on the market potential and opportunity horizon, enterprises can foresee where quantum computing is going to have an impact.

According to the BCG, in the next three to five years, Quantum Computers manufacturers will generate $5 Bn – $10 Bn in revenues. Full-stack players are hardware manufacturers and provide software development kits to work on the hardware.

As per research from Statista, the Quantum Computing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 43percent in the current decade. The global Quantum Computing market could reach $9 Bn in revenue by 2030, compared to $260 Mn in 2020. Source: Quantum Computing Market CAGR, Statista

We are currently in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, where the number of qubits is small (100-150 qubits), and lack the error correction to perform complex computations but is large enough to demonstrate the quantum advantage. In 2021, IBM unveiled its 127-qubit Eagle quantum computer. They are the first to break the 100-qubit barrier mark.

Although the technology is still nascent, companies have experimented with different use cases. In collaboration with Avasant Research, the figure below from NASSCOM gives a glimpse of Quantum Computing applications that enterprises with a time horizon look upon.

Fig. 3: Applications of Quantum Computers in the NISQ Era and Beyond (Source: Nasscom + Avasant Research)

Quantum Computing could create value between $450 Bn to $850 Bn in the next 15 to 30 years. BCG estimates that quantum optimization applications in finance, logistics, and aerospace alone could generate up to $220 Bn in annual revenue once the Quantum Computing technology matures.

Should Enterprises Care About Quantum Computing?

Because quantum computers have the capacity to answer exponentially complex problems that traditional computers cannot, they are projected to alter industries. Future quantum computers might aid in product breakthroughs in chemistry, biology, healthcare, finance, AI, and materials science, allowing innovative enterprises to acquire market share and profit faster.

In this approach, the problem-solving capabilities of Quantum Computing might drastically redefine competitive advantage, reshaping company operating models and value chains and revolutionizing whole sectors.

In 2018, the total amount of data created, captured, copied, and consumed worldwide was 33 zettabytes (ZB) –  equivalent to  33 trillion gigabytes. This grew to 59 ZB in 2020 and is predicted to reach a mind-boggling 175 ZB by 2025. One zettabyte is 8 x 1021 bits. If we  analyze, process, store and protect this 175 ZB data, our current supercomputers will find it challenging to keep up with the volume, complexity, and multiple data processing constraints. Quantum Computing will not only analyze data at a more granular level to identify patterns and anomalies but also perform comparisons between datasets to swiftly assess and understand the relationship between them.

Need for an alternative

The computing industry gained momentum when the first integrated circuits came into the picture 40 years ago. With that, Gordon E. Moore also devised a thumb rule stating that every two years, computers will be twice as capable as the present ones. Moore made this observation by working within the industry and following the trend in the size of transistors, the basic unit in electronic gadgets getting smaller and smaller. Since then, manufacturers have shown intense competition, wishing to keep a general benchmark in the industry with Moore’s law. This has led to better design tools and demand for better products.

The smallest commercial transistors scale up to just 14 nanometers. For manufacturers to keep up with Moore’s law would imply that they either produce even smaller transistors by overcoming the physical limitation of atoms or increase the capability of the current transistors. Producing smaller transistors means the quantum effects would come into play beyond a specific limit. Increasing the computing power of the current chip would mean we need to look beyond traditional computing.

Client-centric use cases on Quantum Computing

Industries have started experimenting with different Quantum Computing use cases. The following figure shows where other industries are currently in the Quantum Computing technology adoption lifecycle.

Fig. 6: Industries across Quantum Computing adoption lifecycle (Source: McKinsey)

According to a survey by McKinsey, technology, media, and telecom companies have made several breakthroughs over the past five years. Advances include achieving quantum supremacy, developing an industrial quantum computer, and setting up cloud-based quantum-computing services. Some of the most popular industry use cases are elaborated on below.

Pharma

• Faster R&D
• Drug development
• Cancer treatment by analyzing genetic data

Chemicals

• Material discovery and development
• Improved catalyst design

Automotive

• Lower manufacturing processes-related costs and shortened cycle time
• Optimizing large autonomous fleets
• Simulation of component interactions calculating system loads, load pathways, noise, and vibration

Finance

• Risk analysis
• Portfolio optimization
• Fraud detection
• Financial forecasting
• Customer identification (and assessment)

Energy

• Utilization prediction
• Grid optimization
• Weather forecasting

Insurance

• Valuation of instruments, and premiums in complex cases
• Accurately simulate weather systems
• Automation of the claims function in real-time using rapid data flow from smart devices
• Improved Customer Relationship Management (CRM)

Logistics

• Route and traffic optimization
• Knapsack problem

Manufacturing

• Identification of manufacturing processes that contributed to incidents of product failure by analyzing large manufacturing data sets on operational failures
• Design optimization (e.g., batteries, chips, vehicles, etc.)

Communications

• Solving and modeling network optimization problems
• Highly secure communication via Quantum Cryptography which is impossible to wiretap or intercept

Conclusion

Quantum Computing represents a breakthrough for some complex operations, and current technological advancement will likely create hybrid cloud architecture through the orchestration of bits (classical), qubits (quantum), and neurons (AI-assisted programming).

Scaling might remain a persistent issue, but new application areas will emerge over the upcoming decade. Low-cost quantum devices, such as quantum random number generators, which can detect unexpected quantum events and turn them into a stream of binary digits, may experience tremendous growth in the next few years.